Royal Flush Odds Video Poker
- Royal Flush Odds Video Poker Games
- Video Poker Machine Odds
- Odds Of Being Dealt Royal Flush In Video Poker
- Video Poker Hand Odds: One of the great features of video poker is the fact that the odds of each hand being dealt are the same on every machine (Games with 52 cards of course have different odds to those with 53). While the pays for the wins change the chances of getting the wins do not.
- There are some games where it is SLIGHTLY easier to get a Royal Flush. Usually, these are games based on Deuces Wild, where there is a wild card in play. However, even with these rule adaptions, your odds of getting a Royal Flush don’t change by much. For example, in Jacks or Better, your chances of getting a Royal Flush are 0.20.
- Now let's see the probability of having one or more royal flush in one cycle. We took for example Video Poker Jacks or Better. Calculations were made for forty thousand hands. No royal flush - 36.8%.
Everyone who plays video poker eagerly awaits that fourth ace, or specific card that completes a straight flush. Well just how frequently do various jackpot hands occur? These numbers are ON AVERAGE and vary based on the game you play, but are good benchmarks with which to set your expectations as you play:
And don’t try to hit that royal flush every time you get dealt a face card, as the odds of hitting it are 1 in 40,000. Stick to the video poker strategies, as they will give you the best chance at a big payday.
| Jackpot Frequencies | |
| Royal Flush dealt | 1 / 650,000 |
| Royal Flush ending hand | 1 / 40,000 |
| Four of a kind | 1 / 423 |
| Four Aces | 1 / 5,761 |
| Four Aces with a kicker | 1 / 16,236 |
| Four Deuces | 1 / 4,909 |
| 2’s – 4’s | 1 / 2,601 |
| 2’s – 4’s with a kicker | 1 / 6,984 |
| Full House | 1 / 90 |
| Flush | 1 / 85 |
| Straight | 1 / 80 |
| Straight Flush | 1 / 9,150 |
When dealing into held cards, here’s the frequency of getting what you want. The numbers represent on average the odds of getting what you’re after. For example, “Turning one pair into a quad . . . . 1 / 360” means there’s a one in 360 chance of getting that four of a kind.
| Improving pairs | Odds |
| Turning one pair into two pairs | 1 / 6 |
| Turning one pair into three of a kind | 1 / 9 |
| Turning two pair into a full house | 1 / 12 |
| Turning one pair into a quad | 1 / 360 |
| Improving three of a kinds | |
| Turning three of a kind into a full house | 1 / 16 |
| Turning three of a kind into a quad | 1 / 24 |
| Completing a flush | |
| Drawing one card to make a flush | 1 / 5 |
| Drawing two cards to make a flush | 1 / 24 |
| Completing straights | |
| Drawing one card into an open ended straight | 1 / 6 |
| Drawing two cards into an open ended straight | 1 / 23 |
| Drawing a single card to make an inside straight | 1 / 12 |
| The elusive straight flush | |
| Drawing one card to an open ended straight flush | 1 / 24 |
| Drawing one card to a royal flush | 1 / 47 |
Thread Rating:
| 5 votes (50%) | |
| 5 votes (50%) |
10 members have voted
Neutrino
So I was doing some math today on Video Poker and ran into an interesting situation.
It's 9/6 JOB (the concept could apply to other video poker as well), I got 3 to royal with an ace and a ten, another card of the same suit, and a random non-blocker (such as Ad, Kd, Td, 4d, 2s).
I ran it through the calculator and it suggested the optimal play is keep 3 to royal with an EV of 6.434 per 5 units bet, and the runner up is 4 to flush with a EV of 6.383
That is a difference of only 0.012 EV per unit
So that makes me wonder, if going for royal here is indeed the correct play. Because if god forbid, you hit that royal (I've never hit a royal in my life on 1 line), you'll get taxed and you're 'supposed' to tip, not to mention the exact thing you're tipping for - hand pay - is going to inconvenience you and waste maybe a good half an hour of your time.
In addition, going for 4-flush also significantly reduces variance. Usually reducing variance is desirable.
So with all that in consideration, is it still the best play to go for 3 to royal? What do you guys think?
Personally after contemplating that I've decided that small EV gain is not worth the negative sides of hitting a royal. So from now on I'm keeping 4-flush in a situation like this.
It's 9/6 JOB (the concept could apply to other video poker as well), I got 3 to royal with an ace and a ten, another card of the same suit, and a random non-blocker (such as Ad, Kd, Td, 4d, 2s).
I ran it through the calculator and it suggested the optimal play is keep 3 to royal with an EV of 6.434 per 5 units bet, and the runner up is 4 to flush with a EV of 6.383
That is a difference of only 0.012 EV per unit
So that makes me wonder, if going for royal here is indeed the correct play. Because if god forbid, you hit that royal (I've never hit a royal in my life on 1 line), you'll get taxed and you're 'supposed' to tip, not to mention the exact thing you're tipping for - hand pay - is going to inconvenience you and waste maybe a good half an hour of your time.
In addition, going for 4-flush also significantly reduces variance. Usually reducing variance is desirable.
So with all that in consideration, is it still the best play to go for 3 to royal? What do you guys think?
Personally after contemplating that I've decided that small EV gain is not worth the negative sides of hitting a royal. So from now on I'm keeping 4-flush in a situation like this.
Ibeatyouraces
I always follow optimal strategy for 9/6 JoB. So in this case, I go for the royal. Now if the hand is Ah, Jh, 10h, 4h, Kc, I'm going for the flush instead.
RS
It's up to you, really. I don't think holding the 4-flush is an awful play, when you take in the other considerations (variance, hand-pay, slow down play, etc.).
ThatDonGuy
It depends on the game.
Jacks or Better, 8/5 or worse: keep the 3/Royal.
Jacks or Better, 9/6 or better: if the 3/Royal includes both an Ace and a 10, keep the 4/Flush; otherwise, keep the 3/Royal.
9/7/5 Bonus Poker: keep the 3/Royal only if it's K Q J or Q J 10.
Jacks or Better, 8/5 or worse: keep the 3/Royal.
Jacks or Better, 9/6 or better: if the 3/Royal includes both an Ace and a 10, keep the 4/Flush; otherwise, keep the 3/Royal.
9/7/5 Bonus Poker: keep the 3/Royal only if it's K Q J or Q J 10.
Ibeatyouraces
Royal Flush Odds Video Poker Games
...Jacks or Better, 9/6 or better: if the 3/Royal includes both an Ace and a 10, keep the 4/Flush; otherwise, keep the 3/Royal...
Almost. This depends on the other two cards. In order for the four card flush draw to be correct, one of the others must be the same suit and the other must be a 10 or missing straight card.
Example Ah, Jh, 10h, 4h, Ks = flush draw. Ah, Jh, 10h, 4h, 6s = royal draw.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Neutrino
You guys don't mind getting taxed on the royal? I'm not sure how to do the calculation here but my instincts tell me the taxes alone may offset the EV difference from 3-royal.
Ibeatyouraces
You guys don't mind getting taxed on the royal? I'm not sure how to do the calculation here but my instincts tell me the taxes alone may offset the EV difference from 3-royal.
Video Poker Machine Odds
Most are losing gamblers anyway. Just write it off and you'll owe no taxes.Also, quarter royals aren't taxed...yet.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
DJTeddyBear
According to the Wizard's analyzer, http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/hand-analyzer/Holding the 3 to a Royal is worth 1.286 while holding the 4 to a Flush is worth 1.276
So, yeah, it's kind of a coin toss...
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
boymimbo
It is no coin toss when taxes are taken into effect and you do not itemize. Take the 4 to a flush.----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Ibeatyouraces
Why even play if you don't want a royal? Makes absolutely no sense.
Odds Of Being Dealt Royal Flush In Video Poker
- Page 1 of 3