In no-limit Hold'em, you can lose your entire stack in a single hand, so stick with stakes. Most recreational players in online poker cash games are passive, so after identifying weaker ones, you have to adjust your strategy to exploit them. Obviously, you will be facing different players all the time, so you should observe how they play and use poker statsto identify the best strategy against each of them.

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I recently passed a milestone in my quest to beat 100NL online. That milestone was playing over 500,000 hands of online cash game poker. The truth is that I’ve played more than 500,000 hands of cash online in my life but these 500,000 make up the vast majority of my online cash game experience. I decided to dive into this data and write up as detailed a post as possible to help share some of the hard facts (data doesn’t lie) about grinding micro and low stakes cash game poker online.
The post has dozens of insights backed up with data but I’m sure there are things that can be included in my analysis. If you would like me to discuss something specific which doesn’t appear in the post then please comment below or email me at justin@thegreatgrind.com.

Distribution of the hands played AKA the high level view of the data

As you can see from the table below the 500k hands were played across all buy-in levels from 2NL (1c/2c) all the way to 100NL (50c/$1). Since February last year when I made the decision to move to cash games I started with only $80 in my account with the aim of building a bankroll. My plan for 2013 was to start at 1c/2c and build up a roll and move through the levels until I was comfortably beating 50NL. It is for this reason that 40% of the hands in the 500k sample were played at 50NL and the buy-in levels with the fewest hands are the very first levels. Since I was able to beat 50NL at around the 400k hands mark, my focus has been on moving up in stakes and beating the 100NL level. As you can see in the 100NL row I still have some work to do.

The 500k hands were played over 699 hours which comes to around 715 hands per hour. On average I see around 65 hands per table at full ring which means that on average I’ve been playing 11 tables simultaneously which sounds about right. Initially I played 4-6 tables and April was the first full month that I played 24 tables. I have since gone down to 12 and even 6 tables while trying to beat 100NL.

The table below shows the distribution of the 500k sample by day of the week. You can clearly see that I play the vast majority of my hands over Friday and Saturday (my weekend).

These 500k hands were racked up in 201 different sessions. During these 201 sessions I lost money 75 times (37%) with my longest loosing streak being 6 sessions. My longest winning streak was 15 sessions (unfortunately this was at 2NL:)). The lesson here is that even winning players loss one in 3 sessions on average. During these sessions I’ve paid $10,012 in rake. Unfortunately I haven’t recorded the money I’ve earned from bonuses.

The law of diminishing win rates

One of the most obvious concepts of poker is that the game gets tougher to beat the higher you go up in stakes. An interesting question though is by how much does one’s win rate go down the higher he climbs in stakes. Before we look at my data to get some sense of the drop, it is important to understand that the shape of the graph of someone’s win rate as you go up in stakes will be very different on a player-by-player basis. The main reason for this is because most players don’t stick to a level they can beat long enough to determine their true win rate. This effect can be catastrophic to some players who move up in stakes too quickly after running hot at a new buy-in level. Ask two poker players how many hands you should play to determine your true win rate and you will get three answers. Later in my analysis you will see that the real number is much higher than what most people think.

Do you notice the different between by actual win rate and my EV adjusted winrate at 2NL and 5NL? The reason for this is because my sample sizes for these buy-in levels are small which means I was running very hot (at 5NL) and very cold (at 2NL). In the long run your actual winrate and EV adjusted winrate will match.

The plight of the break-even periods

Below are three graphs of periods within my 500k hands sample which almost drove me mentally insane. Let’s look at each one on their own and lets see what we can learn from the horror.

The first graph shows a period of roughly 166,000 hands where I broke even at 25NL and 50NL. Before embarking on my challenge to beat 50NL I knew I could beat 10NL but always got stuck at 25NL so when I finally reached 25NL I was ready for the challenge. About 2 month into playing 25NL I took my first shot at 50NL and it went badly. After dropping $1,000 dollars I went back down to 25NL expecting to continue to beat the level like I was doing before taking the shot at 50NL. Not only did I not sustain my earlier win rate at the level but my confidence took a big knock and my volume suffered. I knew I could beat the level and that my failed shot at 50NL was mostly as a result of run bad (more on this later) so I held firm and pushed through it, 40,000 hands later I saw the light and continued to build the mountain (you know, the shape of my graph:)).

The second break-even period is a bit different from the first. The main difference here is that instead of experiencing an extended period of time where I failed to maintain a positive win rate, I ended up wiping out 5 months of positive results in a mere 33 hours. My first shot at 100NL was so devastating financially in comparison to my positive results over the months that in a mere 12,784 hands I wrote off the winnings I had accumulated over the first 7 months of 2013. The way I got through this blow was by understanding the big picture and that if I can wipe out so much money so quickly, the opposite is also true when positive variance is on your side. Losing $500-$1000 or 5-10 buy-ins over a period of 12k hands isn’t unheard of. It is very important to keep things in proportion and to remember the final goal.

The final break-even graph shows all the hands I played at 50NL in the 500k sample. Do you notice what happened during the first 80,000 hands? The first 80k hands was a special type of hell but when I finally got through it and I broke even at the level something happened, I started to beat the level and haven’t looked back. I think a very important lesson can be learnt from this graph. 80k hands is a hell of a lot of hands for someone who plays this game on the side and I know there are many players out there who couldn’t handle going through so many hands without showing a profit for their work. The reality is that if I decided to call it quits after 80k hands at 50NL I would have cost myself thousands of dollars and perhaps even tens of thousands of dollars if I successfully beat 100NL. The lesson to be learnt here is that it can take you tens of thousands of hands to beat a level so keep your head up and don’t quit.

Your aces will break 10 percent of the time and you should fold 9 2

Did you know there are 169 different hands you can be dealt in a Texas Holdem hand? I know what you’re thinking, there are a lot more than 169 different combinations of hands that someone can be dealt. You’re right, there are actually 1,326 combinations but if you had to group those into suited combinations and unsuited combinations you would get 169 different combinations. Don’t believe me, just look at the table below. 13 hands per row, times 13 rows equals 169.

Now that we have determined that there are 169 different hand strength combinations that you can be dealt, lets have a look at how each one fairs.

There are a number of very interesting things we can gather from this table:

• Even the strongest hand in poker loses 1 in 10 times.
• You will flop a set 11.7% of the time (1 in 8.5).
• On average you will be flipping (50-50) when all in pre-flop.
• Even though 500k hands is a large sample size, when you are breaking it down by 169 different hand combos, there will still be variance on a hand per hand basis. This explains why pocket 3s is my biggest losing hand when looking at dollars won and lost and why I’ve lost more money with QJs vs 82o.
• I’ve mis-click folded AA or timed out when I was dealt them 5 times (whoops!!).

One stat which I find very interesting is the fact that I’ve lost money with 130 of the 169 hand combinations shown in the table above, that’s a majority of 77%. I’m beating 50NL for over 3bb/100 and I’m still losing money with 77% of my hands. If you are struggling to beat this game then most likely you are still playing a number of unprofitable hands on a constant basis. Understand that there are hands which can’t make you money in the long run and that you need to cut them out of your game.

How tight is the competition?

Something which was extremely obvious to me when I was moving up in stakes was the increase in the number of regs at my tables. The first level where I noticed this was at 25NL which seems ridiculously reg infested (50 and 100NL aren’t much better). I decided to dive into my data and see the difference in the tightness level for each buy-in level. Check out the pie charts below which show the percentage of players with certain VPIP ranges per buy-in level.

I was surprised by these results because from the 4 pie charts above it seems 10NL is tighter than 25 and 50NL which wasn’t my experience. One of the issues with this data is that we don’t necessarily know the true VPIP of many of the players in the sample. Check out the table below to see the average number of hands for players based on their VPIP. You can clearly see that the tighter players have a much higher average number of hands which makes sense because these are the regulars which are multi-tabling and putting in a lot of hours. We can also clearly see that players which play above 25% of their hands don’t last.

Final thoughts

There is an almost unlimited number of analyses I could add to this post but I’ve decided to stop here. I think there is enough here for now and I hope that even the most seasoned professional will find something in this post which will help them improve their game. I would love to hear your thoughts on this post and what you would like me to include in my analysis.

If you enjoyed this post and want to learn how to analyze your own poker stats then check out this detailed guide on the poker stats which matter at 2NL. You can also subscribe to this blog or follow me on Twitter by clicking on the follow button below.

Good luck at the tables.

Poker at the micro stakes is where most of us start our cash game journey. It is important to start creating good habits now that will carry over once you move on to higher stakes. While the micros can be beaten without too much effort, there are a few pitfalls that you need to look out for if you want to maximize your chance of success at the lowest stakes.

The purpose of this article is to give beginners and intermediate players the top 10 keys to beating the micro-stakes. Each item on my list has been gleaned from personal experience having played millions of hands at 25NL and below. My hope is that I give you the best chance possible of crushing the games and gaining invaluable experience that will serve you well as you move up through the micros and beyond.

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1. Avoid Complicated Spots

When playing for nickels and dimes online at the micro stakes, it’s not the time to try and impress your poker buddies with fancy plays made in marginal spots. This is a recipe for slower than necessary progress when trying to beat a bunch of beginners and recreational players. There will be plenty of opportunities to push small edges after you move up to mid-stakes, and beyond, where the games are tougher and easy money is much harder to find.

Instead, at the micro-stakes, you should be looking to make your money by overwhelming your opponents with a precise following of the fundamentals. By avoiding complicated spots, you can be assured that you are making money from the collective mistakes of the other players. Just grind out an exploitative ABC game by playing lots of pots in position and profit will flow into your bankroll. As a rule, relentlessly value bet your big hands and don’t overplay your marginal ones.

2. Play Exploitative Poker

One of the concepts that you must master to win at poker is to understand that poker is a people game. At the micro-stakes, there is a large variety of player types that can be exploited in one way or another. Learning to profile your opponents and label them is a key skill to learn and will allow you to make quick and targeted adjustments while you play.

Beyond your core strategy, forget about game theory optimal play. Save that kind of thinking for when you are playing high stakes. When the vast majority of your opponents are playing sub-optimally, you instead want to take advantage of those leaks in order to maximize profit. While “GTO” play would certainly win versus bad players, it simply isn’t going to let you maximize your win-rate.

3. Don’t Battle Micro-Stakes Regs

I recommend that you learn a bit about the various levels of thinking, but don’t get too caught up in trying to battle the best players at each stake. Instead, as a rule, avoid complicated spots against them and just look for their leaks the same way you do against the fish. In general, you want to make sure you play on your terms when involved in a hand with them. In other words, always play to your strengths and make the regs be at a disadvantage when involved in a hand with you.

I know, I know…. easier said than done, right? Even so, the fact that you are even thinking about such things right now gives you an inherent advantage. The best place to start is with good note-taking. Beyond that, just focus on your decision-making process and you will be fine.

4. Bet The Strength Of Your Hand

Once you are playing small stakes, 50NL to 100NL, there will be a need to start considering balance as part of your overall strategy. There will be regulars who will hone in on any weaknesses in your game and exploit you relentlessly. However, for the most part, you don’t have to worry about getting exploited at the micro-stakes. Even the “better” players at the table will mostly be playing a level one strategy that is based mostly on their own cards.

In general, you can get away with just making big bets with big hands and small bets with marginal hands. It really doesn’t take an acute understanding of post-flop equity to beat your typical micro-stakes table. Most of your opponents won’t be paying much attention to what anyone else is doing and, even if they are, won’t often know how to use that information effectively.

5. Follow Charts While You Learn

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All top players know exactly what they will do in 99% of the situations they face. They then adjust their lines based on the table dynamic and game flow considerations. You need to get to the point where most of the game becomes automatic for you. It really helps you have a core strategy to fall back on.

While you are learning, you will often become lost and have no clue what to do. As a temporary learning tool, it’s a good idea to make a chart that includes all of your “vacuum” ranges and lines that you use when you are completely readless. It’s not as hard as you think, here is a downloadable template (shown below) for you to fill in the blanks. Also, if you want to know how it works, I created a free basic strategy that uses similar charts which will give you a good starting point.

Pre-Flop and Post-Flop Charts Template

6. Set a Bankroll Management Plan and Stick to It

This might be the most important tip of all since it’s hard to play poker without any money. Beginners will have goals that are much different than experienced players who are just trying to rebuild a bankroll fast. However, no matter your level, if you don’t follow good bankroll management principles you are in for a lot of frustration. I recommend that you have at least 30 buy-ins for a cash game stake and 100 buy-ins for tournaments.

It will be really tempting to try to chase losses if you happen to run bad for an extended period of time, especially if you are playing for what may seem like “insignificant” amounts of money. Even so, at the micros, you are going to be building habits that will last for your entire poker career. If you tempt fate with your risk of ruin now, you will probably do so later on when you are playing pots that are hundreds or thousands of dollars.

7. More Volume, Less Study at the Micro-Stakes

Once you have a basic understanding of poker strategy, I recommend practicing what you have learned for thousands of hands before shifting your focus back to learning. Besides, just knowing the fundamentals and having a rudimentary understanding of how commitment works should allow you to beat up through 25NL on most poker sites. This will give you time to develop some personality in your game and force you to solve situations that will seem very complicated at first.

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You will make mistakes along the way, no doubt. Therefore, the only type of study that I recommend at the micros is that you take notes or keep a journal as you play. Write down anything that you are unclear on and save hand histories where you had major problems or were completely lost. Post those questions on one of the major poker forums and get into discussions on how to navigate those situations for a couple of hours each week. Don’t substitute playing time to post, only do it outside of your playing schedule.

Other than that, I advocate that you wait until you get to 50NL before you start putting in more significant study time. At that point, you will probably want to play and study at a 50/50 ratio or and maybe even get some coaching. But for now, your goal for the 25NL and below should be to get out of 25NL and below.

8. No Slow Playing at the Micros

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This is one of the things that I see all of the time in my students, and it drives me crazy. They are involved in a pot with your typical micro-stakes calling station and flop a huge hand. Instead of betting and/or raising, they check and call, hoping that their opponent will “catch up” a bit and commit to the pot on the turn or river. While this will definitely work in winning pots, it is also a great way to ensure that you win the least amount possible.

No matter what stake you play, one of the biggest sins is to not get enough value with the top of your range when playing in a loose poker dynamic. As a rule, you should always err on the side of betting on the larger side when unsure how to proceed. Unless you have a really good reason, throw out the call button when you flop a strong hand. Bet or raise relentlessly until the money is all-in. Your win-rate will thank you.

9. Do Not Play Tight, Small Ball For The Win

One of the things that most people teach beginners or intermediate players is that “tight is right” and that you should just play very few hands and let weak players make mistakes against your strong range. While this does make the game easier initially and might even work, the advice is actually pretty horrible. Eventually, if you want to compete at mid-stakes or high stakes, you will have to loosen up and learn to play a lot of hands.

The micro-stakes is actually a great place to start developing a loose-aggressive (LAG) strategy. You are playing for less money, so now is the time to get creative and face as many spots as the fundamentals will reasonably allow for. It’s much better to learn when the cost is cheap rather than when the pots are huge, relatively speaking.

Why play as a LAG? The idea is to see a lot of pots against weaker players, in position. Also, when involved in games that see lots of multi-way pots, you want to learn to play hands that can make the nuts (with the right price) and get as much value as possible when you connect. In my opinion, if your VPIP at the micro-stakes is not at least 25% for 6-max or 18% for full ring, you are playing too tight. Below is a screenshot of my positional stats back when I built my cash game bankroll in 2011.

I ran 33/30 against tables of bad regulars and fish. I learned A LOT by playing this many hands.

10. Stick to the Fundamentals

I’ve mentioned this one briefly before but the importance of sticking to the fundamentals against players with bad fundamentals cannot be overstated. Strive to play as many hands as you can with position and initiative. This will allow you to keep constant pressure on opponents who are generally really bad at dealing with pressure

The way to do this is to get good at playing the cutoff through the blinds by having a reasonably strong blind stealing and blind defense strategy. Since most micro-stakes players play badly in the blinds and generally don’t steal or defend enough, there is a lot of profit to be had from recognizing the players who play late position poorly. Your entire pre-flop strategy should be based on setting up profitable post-flop spots for yourself.

After the flop, your main focus should be on optimizing your c-bet frequencies based on your opponents and the board texture. Figure out which players are fit or fold and which ones are calling stations. Once you do that, the only thing left to do is adjust and execute.

Summary

How To Beat Online Poker Cash Games For Us Players

Beating the micro-stakes is easy if you just understand the object of the game, stick to the fundamentals, and play solid aggressive poker. By following the tips in this article, you will be well on your way toward cruising through to 50NL and beyond.

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If you are looking for information to get you on the right path toward beating the games, I wrote a comprehensive poker tutorial designed to prepare anyone to play winning poker. Thanks for stopping by, and good luck at the tables!